Methodology

Deterministic signals with explicit source and confidence labels.

DisputeTracker separates observed market and oracle facts from inferred lifecycle stages and timing estimates. The API does not use an opaque model to predict an outcome.

Resolve the market

The supplied Polymarket slug or URL is normalized and matched against live Polymarket Gamma data. Unknown markets fail before payment settlement.

Enrich the record

CLOB metrics, Polygon RPC events, UMA oracle requests, disputes, and voting rounds are joined when available. Every missing dependency remains visible.

Classify the lifecycle

Ordered rules map observed lifecycle evidence to a named stage, progress state, next event, confidence, completeness, and freshness label.

Primary data sources

Polymarket Gamma

Market identity, question, rules, lifecycle flags, update time, volume, and liquidity.

Polymarket CLOB

Tradable outcome prices and spread when current token books are available.

Polygon RPC and indexed events

UMA requests, proposals, disputes, chain timestamps, and linked oracle activity.

UMA voting data

Voting round phase and final outcome evidence when the public data source exposes it.

Confidence and completeness

Stage confidence describes how strongly observed facts support the selected lifecycle stage. Data completeness describes how much of the expected record is present. Missing fields are returned as machine-readable identifiers instead of being silently filled.

Exact on-chain timestamps and Gamma-derived estimates remain separately labelled. An estimated duration is never represented as an exact deadline.

Resolution-risk score

The score is deterministic and clamped to 0–100:

round((1 - stageConfidence) × 40)
+ round((1 - completeness) × 35)
+ min(15, missingFields × 5)
+ min(10, disputeEvents × 3)

0–33 is low, 34–66 is medium, and 67–100 is high. It is a data-quality and process-risk signal, not an outcome probability or financial advice.

Capability-specific rules

Dispute brief: Returns the shared stage, progress, activity, and latest metrics record.
Stage assessment: Returns the lifecycle stage and progress subset with confidence and timing labels.
Market metrics: Returns the latest price, volume, liquidity, spread, and dispute-activity snapshot.
Evidence readiness: Ready is true only when at least one evidence item exists and no required field is missing.
Resolution risk: Applies the published deterministic score above and returns the contributing factors.

Reproduce and inspect

Operation schemas, prices, request examples, and receipt headers are published in OpenAPI. The production case study shows the same pipeline with public Tempo settlement evidence.

OpenAPI Payment guide MPP case study